Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak.

In our Economic Letter, “How Much Has the Cooling Economy Reduced Inflation,” we find that the recent dynamics of inflation can be at least partially explained by patterns of excess demand in the ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to ...

U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the massive economic upheaval. As the economy recovered, the level of productivity retreated to its slow ...

We study how changes in the composition of Chinese local government debt influenced bank risk taking, credit allocation, and local productivity. Using confidential loan-level data and a ...

The Phillips curve plays a central role in the macroeconomics literature. However, there is little consensus on the forcing variable that drives inflation in the model, i.e., on the appropriate ...

Economists Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro find that recent inflation dynamics can be at least partially explained by patterns of excess demand in the economy. In this Economic Letter video, Adam ...

We examine the impact of systematic media reporting on household inflation expectations, focusing on how selective news coverage influences household responses to inflation news. In a model where ...

An open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is developed for Belize with the objective of identifying the main factors behind the volatility in output growth. A MarkovSwitching VAR ...